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NEW QUESTION 54
The passage most strongly indicates that the author would agree with which of the following statements?
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
Mathematical principles of probability entail that for any future event, the probability that it will occur Is at least as great as the probability that both it and some other given event will occur. Consider, for example, the following statements that were shown to subjects in a 1998 study.
X The percentage of adolescent smokers In Texas will decrease at least 15% from current levels by September 1, 1999.
Y The cigarette tax in Texas will increase by $1.00 per pack in 1999.
Z The cigarette tax in Texas will increase by $1.00 per pack in 1999, and the percentage of adolescent smokers in Texas will decrease at least 15% from current levels by September 1, 1999.
Z("Kand X") could not have been more probable than X. Nevertheless, many of the subjects judged Zto be more probable than X.
This mistaken form of reasoning, displayed with surprising frequency in various studies in addition to the 1998 study, is known as the "conjunction fallacy." A number of researchers have offered alternative explanations for the seeming manifestations of the mistake, thus arguing that the fallacy is less widely committed than the various studies would indicate. Some have claimed that research subjects can take "probability" in a sense that does not conform to the mathematical principles of probability. Detailed descriptions of some such conceptions of "probability" have been developed under the names of "confirmation" and "support." Other researchers would claim, correctly, that subjects shown Z(" Kand X") and ^simultaneously will sometimes think of Xas involving the negation of Y-as a claim that the percentage of adolescent smokers in Texas will decrease, but without the $1.00 increase in the cigarette tax.
However, although the subjects in the 1998 study were to consider Xand Z simultaneously, the statements were presented in terms of bets rather than explicit requests for judgments of relative probability. Subjects were asked to choose between Zand X, with a chance of winning $50.00 if the chosen statement turned out to be true. Terms such as "most probable," "likely," etc., were thus avoided, and the interpretation of X\n conjunction with the negation of Kwas thereby eliminated. And with these alternative explanations eliminated, many of the subjects nonetheless bet on Zrather than X:
NEW QUESTION 55
Of the coins in a certain collection, 30 percent were issued more than ten years ago and 45 percent are foreign.
Of the foreign coins, 20 percent were issued more than ten
years ago. If there are 1,500 coins in the collection, how many are foreign coins that were issued ten years ago or less?
Answer: B
NEW QUESTION 56
Read the passage carefully and then choose the best answer to each question. Answer the question based upon what is stated or implied in the reading passage.
In Ursula LeGuin's short story "The Ones Who Walk Away from Omelas," everyone in the city of Omelas is happy - everyone, that is, except the child who is kept locked in a basement closet. The child is left entirely alone and neglected except for occasional visits from the citizens of Omelas. They come at a certain age as a rite of initiation, to learn the secret of the happiness they enjoy. They come to learn that their happiness has a price: the suffering of an innocent child. In the end, most people stay in Omelas; but a few, unable to bear the fact that they are responsible for the suffering of that child, reject this utopia built upon a utilitarian morality.
Utilitarianism is an ethical theory based upon the belief that happiness is the ultimate good and that people should use happiness as the measure for determining right and wrong. For utilitarian, the right thing to do is that which will bring about the greatest amount of happiness for the greatest number of people.
Furthermore, utilitarianism argues that the intention of people's actions does not matter; only the consequences of their actions are morally relevant, because only the consequences determine how much happiness is produced.
Although many useful social policies and much legislation are founded on this "greatest good" philosophy, utilitarianism can be problematic as a basis for morality. First, happiness is not so easy to quantify, and any measurement is bound to be subjective. Second, in a theory that treats everything except happiness as instrumentally rather than intrinsically valuable, anything - or, more importantly, anyone - can (and should) be treated as a means to an end, if it means greater happiness. This rejects the notion that human beings have their own intrinsic value. Further, utilitarianism puts the burden of the happiness of the masses on the suffering of the few. Is the happiness of many worth the suffering of a few? Why do those few deserve to suffer? Isn't this burden of suffering morally irresponsible? This is the dilemma so brilliantly illustrated in LeGuin's story.
Which of the following best sums up the author's opinion of utilitarianism?
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation/Reference:
Explanation:
The author is critical of utilitarianism, but she also includes evidence that it is a useful theory. LeGuin's story, for example, shows how the sacrifice of one can create the happiness of many. The author also notes that "many useful social policies and much legislation are founded on" utilitarianism, demonstrating that it is a useful ethical theory. The word choice throughout also indicates that the author feels that this ethical theory has both positive and negative aspects. For example, she calls it "problematic," but not
"wrongheaded" or "faulty." She calls the problem of the suffering of the few for the happiness of the many a
"dilemma," not a "flaw" or "failure." She asks questions rather than making statements about the immorality of utilitarian choices. Choice a is incorrect because it simply states a fact from the essay; it does not express an opinion. The author clearly states that "there are several serious problems with utilitarianism as a basis for morality," so choice b is incorrect. Although the statements in choices d and e are true and clearly stated in the text, these are specific criticisms of utilitarianism and do not sum up the author's opinion of this ethical theory.
NEW QUESTION 57
After graduating from high school, people rarely multiply fractions or discuss ancient Rome, but they are confronted daily with decisions relating to home economics. Yet whereas mathematics and history are required courses in the high school curriculum, home economics is only an elective, and few students choose to take it.
Which of the following positions would be best supported by the considerations above?
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation/Reference:
Explanation:
NEW QUESTION 58
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